Dollar appreciation spells trouble for global economy

According to a report on the website of the Wall Street Journal in the United States on September 18, the U.S. dollar iexperiencing
a rebound that occurs once in 20 to 30 years. The surge has the potential to further slow global growth and amplify the inflation 
problem that is troubling central banks.The U.S. dollar is the main currency used in global trade and finance, which means that 
fluctuations in the U.S. dollar can have a wide-ranging impact. Record inflation in Europe and Japan's widening trade deficit both
reflect the dollar's strength.
This week, investors are closely watching the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for clues on the direction of the
dollar. The U.S. central bank is expected to raise interest rates by at least 0.75 percentage point on Tuesday to fight inflation -- 
likely spurring further dollar appreciation.
The ICE U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major trading partner currencies, has risen more 
than 14 percent so far in 2022. This year is on track to be the index's best year since 1985.
The euro, yen and pound have fallen to multi-decade lows against the dollar. Emerging market currencies were hit hard: the 
Egyptian pound lost 18%; the Hungarian forint lost 20%; the South African rand lost 9.4%.
The dollar's appreciation this year has been driven by the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes. Recent economic 
data shows that U.S. inflation remains stubbornly high, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates
and the dollar to strengthen further.
For the U.S., a stronger dollar means lower prices for imported goods, a strong boost to efforts to curb inflation, and new highs in
the relative purchasing power of Americans.
But against the backdrop of a rising dollar, other countries are under pressure.
“I think the impact is only just emerging,” said Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of
Business, who complained loudly about the impact of Fed policy and a strong dollar when he was governor of the Reserve Bank 
of India before. Other countries.
"Many countries haven't experienced a cycle of significant interest rate increases since the 1990s. They already have a lot of debt
 and the pandemic-era borrowing operations have added to that debt," Rajan said. Emerging markets are suffering, he added.
 pressure will increase.
A stronger dollar makes it more expensive for governments and companies in emerging countries to service their dollar-denominated
debt.
"Going into 2022, your country's currency suddenly depreciates by 30%," said Daniel Muneval, an economist at the United Nations 
Conference on Trade and Development. "You may be forced to cut spending on health care, education, and pay off debt."
The rising dollar makes key dollar-denominated imports of food and fuel more expensive, adding to the pain for some small countrie
While commodity prices have retreated from highs in recent months, that has done little to ease pressure on developing countries.
"If the dollar appreciates further, that will be the straw that breaks the camel's back," said Gabriel Stern, head of emerging markets 
research at Oxford Economics.
Central banks in emerging countries have taken steps to curb the devaluation of their currencies and bonds. Argentina raised
interest rates to 75 percent on the 15th in an effort to contain rising inflation and defend the peso, which has fallen nearly 30
percent against the dollar so far this year. Ghana also raised interest rates to 22% last month, but the country's currency is still 
depreciating.
It's not just developing economies that are struggling with a devaluation of their currencies. In Europe, a weaker euro is fueling 
a historic rise in inflation from the war in Ukraine and the resulting surge in gas and electricity prices.
 

Post time: Sep-22-2022

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