From the data of different provinces, the crude steel output of 11 provinces and cities in September fell by more than 20% year-on-year. Among them, Hebei decreased by 22.76%, Jiangsu decreased by 27.18%, Shandong decreased by 30.12%, Guangxi decreased by 20.35%, Henan decreased by 26.62%, Guangdong decreased by 37.34%, Yunnan decreased by 20.69%, Tianjin decreased by 27.36%, Zhejiang decreased by 23.21%, and Xinjiang decreased by 26.96%. And Chongqing fell by 76.90%.
From January to September, the total crude steel output of Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, and Shanxi was 437.67 million tons, accounting for 54.31% of the country’s total output. Among them, Hebei Province ranked first with 174,560,300 tons of crude steel, Jiangsu Province ranked second with 91.273 million tons, Shandong Province ranked third with 61.473 million tons, Liaoning Province ranked fourth with 58.656 million tons, and Shanxi Province ranked fifth with 51,710,700 tons. .
After entering the third quarter, the domestic demand for crude steel has undergone a major reversal, from a substantial increase in the first half of the year to a sharp contraction, which caused the apparent consumption of crude steel to decline from an increase in the first three quarters, which was the first decline in many years.
Main factors contributing to the sharp decline in domestic demand for crude steel
Macroeconomic growth has fallen
Affected by factors such as the complex and severe international environment, the impact of the domestic epidemic flood, and the rising base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate of economic data in August fell from the previous month. Under strict supervision policies, real estate and infrastructure have continued to weaken. The epidemic has repeatedly affected consumption, especially catering trips have been significantly reduced. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of national fixed asset investment and the output of important steel-consuming products has also fallen sharply, and some products such as automobiles and construction machinery have also seen a significant decline.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 18, China’s GDP in the first three quarters was 8,23131 billion yuan. In quarterly terms, the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.0%; the second quarter increased by 7.9% year-on-year. The average annual growth rate was 5.5%; the third quarter increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.9%. Judging from the data released this time, the economic growth rate in the third quarter dropped significantly.
Crude steel imports fell
According to customs statistics, from January to September 2021, the country imported 10.716 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%, of which the import of steel in September fell by 56.5%.
Significant increase in steel exports
According to customs statistics, from January to September 2021, the country exported 53.024 million tons of steel products, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. After entering the third quarter, despite the restrictive measures introduced by relevant departments, steel exports continued to grow substantially. Among them, the export of steel products in September increased by 28.5% year-on-year.
In the fourth quarter, the pressure on production restrictions in various provinces is still great
Based on the cumulative data of the Bureau of Statistics, the top ten provinces with theoretical reduction of crude steel in the fourth quarter of 2021 are Jiangsu 3.82 million tons, Guangxi 3.19 million tons, Shanxi 3.17 million tons, Hubei 2.95 million tons, Guangdong 2.34 million tons, and Yunnan 2.29 million Tons, 1.87 million tons in Liaoning, 1.81 million tons in Fujian, 1.74 million tons in Anhui, and 1.61 million tons in Gansu.
According to the current intensity of production restrictions, the major crude steel provinces that can achieve zero annual output growth are Hebei, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi and other provinces.
The provinces that need to increase pressure reduction are Ningxia, Chongqing, Guangxi, Guangdong, Gansu, Hubei, Yunnan and so on.
The largest increase in crude steel output from January to August was in Guangxi Province. Recently, due to the shortage of electricity, there have been more electric furnace maintenance in Guangxi. However, from the pressure of production reduction, it may be difficult to let go in the future.
According to the current reduction efforts, Shandong can complete the target this year.
Although Jiangsu Province has not announced the production cut requirements for the fourth quarter, as there are still 4.51 million tons of increments in four months, Jiangsu still needs to maintain the reduction in September to achieve the goal of zero growth for the year.
Post time: Oct-27-2021